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Risk Analysis Gerdau 2012

In: Business and Management

Submitted By hmacabelli
Words 422
Pages 2
1. RENTABILIDADE
A rentabilidade diminui 2,7 pontos percentuais de 2011 para 2012, ficando abaixo da taxa SELIC 7,25%. Esse fato, se repetido nos próximos anos, pode representar risco de a empresa ter dificuldade em conseguir investidores.

| 2012 | 2011 | Lucro Líquido | 1.496.240 | 2.097.576 | Patrimônio Líquido | 28.797.917 | 26.519.803 | ROE | 5,2% | 7,9% |

2. CAPITAL DE GIRO LÍQUIDO
O capital de giro líquido, embora decrescente, não representa risco, uma vez que é positivo em mais de R$ 8 bilhões. Os ativos circulantes são suficiente para cobrir mais de duas vezes os passivos circulantes.

| 2012 | 2011 | Ativo Circulante | 16.410.397 | 17.319.149 | Passivo Circulante | 7.823.182 | 6.777.001 | CGL | 8.587.215 | 10.542.148 |

A conta de estoques representa mais de 50% do ativo circulante, entretanto, os produtos da Gerdau não são perecíveis. O que reforça o baixo risco nesse índice.

3. PERFIL DE GERAÇÃO DE CAIXA
Conforme analisado anteriormente, o perfil de geração de caixa da empresa foi essencialmente operacional nos últimos anos e a taxa de conversão apresentou grande melhora em relação a 2011 (de 0,36 para mais de 1,00). Não existem motivos para considerar a existência de risco por meio desse índice

4. CAPACIDADE DE PAGAMENTO DE JUROS E DÍVIDA
O Índice de Cobertura de Juros (ICJ) apresentou considerável melhora, principalmente devido ao grande aumento do fluxo de caixa operacional (FCO), o qual supera o Resultado financeiro em mais de 6 vezes.

| 2012 | 2011 | FCO | 4.344.047 | 1.710.018 | Resultado Financeiro | 654.615 | 580.093 | ICJ | 6,64 | 2,95 |

A relação Dívida Líquida / EBITDA piorou, apontando que seriam necessários mais de 3 anos de EBITDA para o pagamento da dívida. O aumento da dívida foi em grande parte devido à desvalorização cambial do Real frente ao Dólar. 80% da dívida da empresa é em moeda estrangeira.

| 2012 | 2011 | Pass Circ Oneroso | 2.582.353 | 1.756.993 | Pass N Circ Oneroso | 12.086.202 | 11.926.535 | Caixa | 1.437.235 | 1.476.599 | Dívida Líquida | 13.231.320 | 12.206.929 | EBITDA | 4.176.205 | 4.651.008 | Div Líquida / EBITDA | 3,2 | 2,6 |

Apesar de ter piorado, a relação ainda pode ser considerada aceitável, uma vez que é inferior ao limite de 3,5 anos adotado pelo mercado. É importante observar o comportamento desse índice no decorrer das divulgações trimestrais de 2013 para avaliar se há ou não tendência de piora. No momento ainda não apresenta grande risco.…...

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