Free Essay

Forecast Analysis

In: Business and Management

Submitted By sjuain
Words 396
Pages 2
Public School Enrollment Changes in Little Rock, AR

Within the city boundaries, the Little Rock School District provides good quality education to students who live there as well as to students who live outside the city who choose to transfer to one of the magnet or interdistrict schools.
The magnet school programs were awesome additions to the school district. One of the schools we will focus on today is Booker Arts Magnet Elementary. Booker Arts Magnet Elementary is one of the original magnet schools whose focus is on the arts. Its appeal is due to the exciting focus on such arts as dance, drama, music, visual art, orchestra, and piano lab. This environment is believed to be a creative learning environment even for those exceptional students. There are other magnet schools which focus on other subjects from Science to Foreign Languages. Because of their popularity there was great excitement through the communities. Parents had to apply in their various districts to get into these schools and many were put on waiting list to get in. The number of students rose within the district by leaps and bounds as reflected in chart below for school year 2006/2007. These schools are also recognized for their multicultural diversity and high academic standards.
As times changed, there began to be an increase in private schools, many of which began scholarship programs to lure in moderate to low income families, who normally couldn’t afford the private sector. Because many private schools have lower than public attendance, they could provide smaller class sizes, which allows a more hands on approach to teaching which most times results in great test scores. Little Rock School District strives to provide its students with the quality and most efficient education possible, and is developing even more innovative ways to educate their students to compete in the industry.
Over the years not only did the private schools increase but there were charter schools that developed which challenged the attendance in the public schools even more. As you review the chart below, you will notice a decrease in student enrollment, quarterly as well as yearly for the past four years.

|Booker Elementary End of Quarter Enrollment |
|Quarter |2009-2010 |2008-2009 |2007-2008 |2006-2007 |
|1 |570 |592 |609 |631 |
|2 |560 |590 |604 |635 |
|3 |558 |590 |605 |632 |
|4 |558 |589 |603 |623 |…...

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Gdp Forecast

...Individual Project 1 1. Forecasting (a) Economic Growth: According to Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP increased by 2% in the first quarter of 2012 and by 1.3% in the second quarter. It is likely that this positive trend will be confirmed even in the 3rd quarter of this year. A possible estimate is the mean of the variations of GDP which occurred in the first two quarters of 2012. According to this reasoning GDP would increase by about 1.65% in the 3rd quarter. In order to support this estimate we can look at several significant indexes. For instance we can consider the Consumer confidence (this index is aimed at predicting consumption patterns). The figure related to September was 70.3 compared to 61.3 of the previous month. Therefore an increase in private consumption could lead to an increase of GDP. The increase in private consumption is not unreasonable. The average annual expenditure per consumer rose by 3.3% in 2011, slightly outpacing the 3.2% increase in CPI which occurred from 2010 and 2011. This is the first real rise in private consumption after 2007. So we can reasonably expect an increase in consumption expenditure even in 2012. Another meaningful index we can consider in our analysis is New home sales. The data for August was 373K compared to 374K of the previous month. So there is a slight downturn in purchased houses that could represent a reduced willingness to make investments. But at the same time I think that this decrease is too......

Words: 893 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Demand and Forecast

...price is also important factor because the price is chosen as a variable. The number of Pizzas sold in the region is the defendant variable. By applying regression model, the independent variable will be equal to the value of Pizzas that are sold. On the other hand, the independent variable will be the price of Pizza, household income and population (Downing & Clark 2010). The report will analyze the summary output acquired from regression to come up with decisions whether to establish Pizza in the community. This paper considers the simple type of regression analysis where there is one dependent variable and one independent variable in the community. In this particular case the relation between two variables determined by a straight line. The best way to establish a relationship between the price of Pizza and income is through regression analysis (Harrell, 2001). To come up with a good pattern and analysis, one has to draw a diagram showing income measurements on the horizontal axis and Pizza sales on the vertical axis. From the figure, it is clear that there is a strong relationship between Pizza sales and income. It is found out that when the amount of income increases, the sales of Pizza increase significantly. [pic] From the above figure, y represents the total sales of Pizza whereas x represents the income of residents found within the area that Domino wants to venture. From the figure, we can be able to calculate the regression line. For instance,...

Words: 918 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Forecasting Imports Price Growth in China with Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: an Analysis of Forecast Methods

...  Jiang  1   Forecasting Imports Price Growth in China With Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: An Analysis of Forecast Methods Lili Jiang Saint Louis University ECON 698 Professor: Hailong Qian   Jiang  2   Abstract This paper examines to forecast monthly growth rate of import price in China in the presence of 19 potentially relevant predictors, including international trade related variables, broad economic trend measurement, world CPI and world commodity prices and indices from January 1994 to January 2013. Simulated out-of-sample autoregressive model serves as the benchmark model. Individual autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, simple averaging combination forecast, approximate Bayesian model averaging combination forecast, discount MSFE combination forecast and diffusion indices forecast are built to compete the benchmark model. We found that all combination forecasts outperform benchmark forecast but are not statistically significant by using Clark & West test. The ARDL model with the predictor of China export price and China PPI beat the benchmark model significantly. Finally, resorting to Diebold and Mariano test, we found that the predictor of PPI in China performs best in forecasting the growth rate of import price in China.   Jiang  3   1. Introduction In the past 20 years, China has undertaken market oriented economic reforms and achieved an average annual growth rate of 9.62%. The expansion of......

Words: 7204 - Pages: 29

Free Essay

Indian Nutraceutical Market Forecast

...Brochure More information from Indian Nutraceuticals Market Forecast to 2017 Description: India is the most potential market for Nutraceuticals and Dietary Supplement products. The burgeoning affluent middle class population in the country is increasingly becoming health conscious. The awareness about the positive impact of using nutraceuticals and dietary supplements is the new phenomenon among the young Indians. In India nearly 400 million people belong to the middle class and have the disposable income which made them capable to buy nutraceuticals and dietary supplements. It is an inevitable fact that affluence is one of the causes of lifestyle diseases, which nutraceuticals and dietary supplements often address. Over the past five years (2008-2012), the Indian Nutraceuticals Market has been growing at a rapid pace. The Indian Nutraceuticals market is the fastest growing sector among other sectors of Indian food and Phamaceuticals market and is expected to sustain its growth in the coming years. Indian Nutraceuticals Market Forecast to 2017 is a comprehensive research that contains detail statistics, indepth analysis, and quality research on Indian Nutraceuticals Market. The report categorizes Indian Nutraceuticals Market into three segments such as Functional Foods Market, Functional Beverages Market, and Dietary Supplements Market to provide a detailed overview of past and present performance of each segment. The......

Words: 2976 - Pages: 12

Premium Essay

Fertilizer Demand Forecast in Pakistan

...ABSTRACT This report provide overview of the information on the Pakistan fertilizer situation from 1990-91 to 2008-09. Pakistan rank 46th in the world in terms of fertilizer consumption and its fertilizer usage per hector is 115kgs.This study has been conducted to find out the factors which have been affecting demand for fertilizer as specified equations for nitrogen, phosphorus and potash, are estimated by using the static models. The results are acceptable from both an economic and statistical point of view. Using a linear regression analysis the result indicated that the demand function equation i.e. Y = 2.9723 + 0.0597 (x) can forecast the future demand of the fertilizer. Key Words: Demand; Fertilizer; Pakistan; Regression Analysis; demand function equation; future demand of fertilizer. INTRODUCTION Fertilizers constitute a key component of the modern farm technology for achieving increased production through improving soil fertility. In this modern agricultural era, fertilizer is basic important input to boost yield. Contribution of balanced fertilization towards increased yield is from 30 to 60 percent in different crop production regions of the country. One kg of fertilizer nutrient produces about 8 kg of cereals (wheat, maize and rice), 2.5 kg of cotton and 114 kg of stripped sugarcane. All of our soils are deficient in nitrogen (N), 80-90 percent are deficient in phosphorus (P) and 30 percent in potassium (K), Wide spread deficiency of micronutrients......

Words: 1816 - Pages: 8

Premium Essay

Account Forecast

...Financial forecasts As part of your plan you will need to provide a set of financial projections which translate what you've said about your business into numbers.  You will need to look carefully at: how much capital you need if you are seeking external funding the security you can offer lenders how you plan to repay any borrowings sources of revenue and income You may also want to include your personal finances as part of the plan at this stage. 1 Financial planning Your forecasts should run for the next three (or even five) years and their level of sophistication should reflect the sophistication of your business. However, the first 12 months' forecasts should have the most detail associated with them.   Include the assumptions behind your projection with your figures, both in terms of costs and revenues so investors can clearly see the thinking behind the numbers. 2 What your forecasts should include Break even analysis Profit and loss forecast - a statement of the trading position of the business: the level of profit you expect to make, given your projected sales and the costs of providing goods and services and your overheads.  Cashflow statements - your cash balance and monthly cashflow patterns for at least the first 12 to 18 months. The aim is to show that your business will have enough working capital to survive so make sure you have considered the key factors such as the...

Words: 5352 - Pages: 22

Premium Essay

Oced Forecast

...Please cite this note as: OECD (2014), “OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: A Post Mortem”, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 23 February 2014. OECD FORECASTS DURING AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A POST MORTEM OECD Economics Department Policy Note no. 23 February 2014 This Policy Note is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. © OECD 2014 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be......

Words: 4628 - Pages: 19

Free Essay

Forecast Methods

...comparison of several forecasts to assess their accuracy and choose among the various forecasting methods. In this approach, one must plot (using, e.g., Excel) on the same graph the original values of a time series variable and the predicted values from several different forecasting methods, thus facilitating a visual comparison. You may like using the Past Forecasts by Smoothing Techniques JavaScript to obtain the past forecast values based on smoothing techniques that use only single parameter. Holt, and Winters methods use two and three parameters, respectively, therefore it is not an easy task to select the optimal, or even near optimal values by trial-and –errors for the parameters. The single exponential smoothing emphasizes the short-range perspective; it sets the level to the last observation and is based on the condition that there is no trend. The linear regression, which fits a least squares line to the historical data (or transformed historical data), represents the long range, which is conditioned on the basic trend. Holt’s linear exponential smoothing captures information about recent trend. The parameters in Holt’s model is levels-parameter which should be decreased when the amount of data variation is large, and trends-parameter should be increased if the recent trend direction is supported by the causal some factors. Short-term Forecasting: Notice that every JavaScript on this page provides a one-step-ahead forecast. To obtain a two-step-ahead forecast,......

Words: 753 - Pages: 4

Free Essay


...(or implementation) implications are huge! Alternatively, I’ve observed over-zealous executive teams declare a time-to-market mandate without consideration of the project complexities. The pressure on the project teams results in estimates executives “want to hear,” but that have no basis in the reality of the work. As time and cost estimates are missed, the environment tends to deteriorate into one of finger-pointing, excuse-making and general dysfunction Fear Impacts Estimates: While fear pushes project estimates out into the future, this same environment likely results in ultra-conservative sales forecasts on one hand and unrealistic cost estimates on the other. For anyone accountable for revenue and/or expense numbers, you tend to take your cue on these numbers from environmental pressures. I’ve observed managers who felt pressure to inflate revenue forecasts out of fear of being viewed as naysayers and poor team players, while at the same time, deflate expense numbers out of fear of being viewed as not having control over costs. Fear in the workplace creates estimating and forecasting gamesmanship. Prior Performance May Be a Poor Predictor: Much like the recency effect displayed by the Everest expedition leaders, we open additional trap doors for our estimating and forecasting approaches by relying too much on prior performance in spite of changing conditions. The past is interesting, but in times of significant change or distress, it is a lousy......

Words: 1143 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Forecast Trend

...tell the STATA that this dataset is the time series format by using “tsset time” command. Then, the autocorrelations and partial autocorrelation are used to examine that whether the series is non-stationary or not. As can be seen the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation graph below, they can be suggested that the series is non-stationary because the AC graph The series is non-stationary as the autocorrelations decrease slowly as the number of time lags increases and the partial autocorrelations show a large spike close to one at lag 1. Autocorrelation (AC) Partial autocorrelations (PAC) To estimate the fitted model, there are four possible trends that are chosen to compare as follows: Linear trend model In order to forecast the trend, we start to fit a linear trend model to the data by regressing the GDP on a constant and a linear time trend. The p-value of the t- statistic on the time trend is zero and the regression’s R2 is high so it can be implied that the trend appears highly significant. Moreover, as can be seen in the residual graph, it can be concluded that the linear trend is inadequate due to the fact that the actual trend is nonlinear. Residual Additionally, the linear model is not suitable when compared the fitted linear trend and the actual trend in the graph below. Quadratic trend model It can be seen that the quadratic trend is also not good model because the the quardratic trend graph is not fitted with the linear......

Words: 1122 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Financial Forecast Vlp

...OCTOBER 2002 | | | | | | | | | | Financial forecast for Lowe's | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Fiscal year | ASSUMPTIONS | | 2001 | 2002F | 2003F | 2004F | 2005F | 2006F | | | | | | | | | | | Growth in new stores | | 14.5% | 16.9% | 15.9% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 13.0% | | Sales growth for existing stores | | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | | Total sales growth | | 17.3% | 19.9% | 18.5% | 17.7% | 17.9% | 19.4% | | | | | | | | | | | Gross margin | | 28.8% | 29.2% | 29.5% | 29.5% | 29.5% | 29.5% | | Cash operating expenses/Sales | | 18.3% | 17.7% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 17.7% | 17.5% | | Depreciation/Sales | | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | | Income tax rate | | 37.0% | 37.4% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% | | | | | | | | | | | Cash & ST Inv/Sales | | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | | Receivable turnover | | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | | Inventory turnover | | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | | P&E Turnover | | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | | Payables/COGS | | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | | Other curr liab/Sales | | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | | | | | | | | | | FORECAST | | | | | | | | | Number of stores |......

Words: 506 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Earnings Forecasts

...Earnings Forecasts: A Primer By Ben McClure AAA | Anyone who reads the financial press or watches CNBC on television will have heard the term "beat the street", which really just means to beat Wall Street earnings forecasts. Wall Street analysts' consensus earnings estimates are used by the market to judge stock performance. Here we offer a brief overview of the consensus earnings and what they mean to investors. What are Consensus Earnings? Consensus earnings estimates are far from perfect, but they are watched by many investors and play an important role in measuring the appropriate valuation for a stock. Investors measure stock performance on the basis of a company's earnings power. To make a proper assessment, investors seek a sound estimate of this year's and next year's earnings per share (EPS), as well as a strong sense of how much the company will earn even farther down the road. (For further reading, see Earnings Guidance: The Good, The Bad And Good Riddance?) That's why, as part of their services to clients, large brokerage firms such as Citigroup and Merrill Lynch (the "sell side" of Wall Street and other investment communities) employ legions of stock analysts to publish forecast reports on companies' earnings over the coming years. A consensus forecast number is normally an average or median of all the forecasts from individual analysts tracking a particular stock. So, when you hear that a company is expected to earn $1.50......

Words: 1132 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Global and China High Voltage Load Switch Loss Industry 2015 Market Analysis Survey Research Growth and Forecast

...High Voltage Load Switch Loss Industry 2015 Market Analysis Survey Research Growth and Forecast Report A new research report on the international High Voltage Load Switch Loss industry, with a key focus on the China market, has been recently added to the research report database. The report, titled “Global And China High Voltage Load Switch Loss Industry 2015 Market Research Report”, is a detailed analysis of the key elements of the High Voltage Load Switch Loss industry chain based on expert data gathered pertaining to report’s review period. A detailed forecast of the High Voltage Load Switch Loss industry’s future state during the years 2020-2015 is formed based on historical data, prominent trends of the past, and development trends observed in the industry so far. The section of competitive analysis of the report presents a snapshot of the High Voltage Load Switch Loss industry landscape in key countries and regions across the globe, with a keen focus on Chinese regions. Of the key High Voltage Load Switch Loss international and Chinese manufacturers, details such as product types manufactured, production capacities, production values, gross margins, product production global share, company contact information, product pictures, manufacturing processes, product cost structures, etc. are included. The report also studies the new projects in the High Voltage Load Switch Loss marketplace, and presents SWOT analysis, investments feasibility and returns feasibility......

Words: 1014 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Financial Analysis and Forecast Report

...Financial Analysis and Forecast Report Drexel D Brown American InterContinental University Financial Management (FINA310-1602B-02) 5/8/2016 Financial Analysis and Forecast Report Introduction In the financial aspect of accounting and forecasting many mathematical computations are utilized to form data sheets that assist managers and shareholders evaluation of the firm’s current/future financial position. Financial data is also analyzed to allow internal and external comparison of the past and present performances to weigh future decisions on profitability potential against uncertainty and or risk. The financial data provided by Micro Chip Computer Corporation will be analysis to weigh past performances and determine future profitability. Financial Data Chart, Calculations, and Analysis In determining Micro Chip’s year-to-year percentage annual growth total net sales per fiscal period, we utilized the equation: (Next Year’s Net Sales – Last Year’s Net Sales) / Last Year’s Net Sales * 100. MICRO CHIP COMPUTER CORPORATION'S FINANCIAL DATA ANALYSIS | Fiscal Yrs. | FY2008 | FY2007 | FY2006 | FY2005 | FY2004 | Net Sales average | Net sales | $8,334 | $6,141 | $9,181 | $11,933 | $11,062 | $9,332 | Growth/Decline (rounded) | 36% | -33% | -23% | 8% | ---- | | Calculations: (2008 net sales of $8,334 - $6,141 of 2007 net sales) = $2,193/$6,141*100 = .357 or 36% growth in this operating period; 6,141 - 9,181/9,181 = -.3311 or -33% 2007-2006 depicts a......

Words: 694 - Pages: 3

Free Essay

Budgets and Forecasts

...Introduction Budgets and Forecasts are predictions of future income and expenses and cash flow. They also predict future performance with financial forecasts and projections and with financial models. Why Budget and Forecast? Budgets and forecasts provide a feasibility analysis. They can help develop a business model, review the company’s key assumptions, and identify resource and capital needs. Budgets and forecasts can be used to find funding. They demonstrate the potential of the business to investors and lenders. Budgets and forecasts can also be used as a management tool. They can help the organization establish milestones and require accountability for accomplishing the milestones. They can help identify risks and show benchmarks. This will help business owners make the necessary adjustments to avoid the risks, to reach the milestones, and to measure up to benchmarks. Forecasts are important because it can establish measurements to guide management, to facilitate planning, and to facilitate goal setting. As part of the forecasts, the company will review key concepts and issues that will make a difference in the company’s survival. The company also needs to forecast the resources it will need and set up a schedule for using and replenishing it’s resources. For years, companies have viewed their budgets and forecast simply as a mandatory estimate of the upcoming year’s revenues and expenses. However, this attitude is quickly changing as the marketplace becomes...

Words: 694 - Pages: 3